First-Time Home Buyer ARM Origination Trends (2023-2025)
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Data Points
year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2023 548 596 638 739 533 427 346 234 202 167 298 469
2024 418 367 464 414 445 415 402 385 321 177 148 175
2025 163 271 350 501 799 838 909 970
Date Published:
November 6, 2025
Date Updated:
November 6, 2025
Chart type:
Line Chat
Suggested Citation:
Polygon Research, "First Time Home Buyer ARM Originations Trends," Polygon Pulse – MBS Pivot, November 2025. Based on Count of ARM Purchase Loans Sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by month.
Key Insight and Commentary
This chart illustrates the origination trends for Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) among first-time home buyers (FTHBs) from 2023 through 2025, based on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase loan originations data.
Pro-Tip: This is national trend. Find out the ARM originations trend locally, in your market.
The key driver for this trend is a significant affordability advantage. In August 2025, the introductory rate for an ARM was 5.18%, while a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.60%. This 142-basis-point (1.42%) spread provided FTHBs with a powerful incentive to opt for an ARM to lower their initial monthly payment.
- For Lenders and Production Managers: In a high-rate environment, the FTHB segment becomes payment-sensitive. Buyers are facing a significant affordability barrier and are making a rational trade-off: accepting future interest rate risk in exchange for certain monthly savings. Lenders who recognized this spread widening and actively marketed their hybrid-ARM products captured a substantial share of the FTHB purchase market.
- For Risk Managers and Servicers: This surge creates a distinct "vintage" of loans (Summer 2025) with a specific risk profile. This data helps forecast a future wave of refinance demand and, more critically, elevated delinquency risk if rates do not fall before the reset period.
From Analysis to Action
This analysis provides a clear blueprint for how to uncover meaningful market dynamics. Its true power is unleashed when you apply this same methodology to your own local markets. Because all real estate is local, this granular approach is essential for crafting precise strategies that effectively address the unique conditions of each community.
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