Monthly Mortgage Rate Trends from 2022 to 2025

This chart illustrates the monthly movement of mortgage interest rates from early 2022 through late 2025 and the impact of originations volume (by count of loans) in the agency market.
While rates surged past 6% in late 2022 and exceeded 7% in 2023 and again in 2024, an important insight emerges: the overall volume of mortgage activity remained quite stable across 2023, 2024, and 2025.
This flat volume profile amid historically high and volatile rates suggests a shift in borrower composition, dominated by purchase activity rather than refinance, and a more insulated origination pipeline. For lenders, this means that even in high-rate environments, consistent volume could be maintained, but profitability levers shift to managing margins, loan quality, and secondary market execution.
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