Rate-and-Term Refinance Activity: Q2 YoY Trends (2022–2025)
.jpg)
Data Points
Quarter Loans Avg Rate Q2 2022 88,579 4.17% Q2 2023 30,821 5.99% Q2 2024 40,016 6.59% Q2 2025 84,693 6.24%
Date Published:
August 14, 2025
Date Updated:
August 14, 2025
Chart type:
Bar Chart
Suggested Citation:
Polygon Research. “Rate-and-Term Refinance Activity: Q2 YoY Trends (2022–2025).” Polygon Pulse – MBS Pivot, accessed August 2025. Data filters: rate-and-term refinance loans, second quarter comparisons across 2022–2025.
Key Insight and Commentary
Critical strategic inflection point in refinance markets.
The 35 bps rate decline from Q2'24 to Q2'25 doubled origination volume from 40,816 to 84,693 loans - a 2,390 loan increase per basis point.
This elasticity creates three strategic imperatives.
- Originators must develop hyper-granular rate positioning capabilities: small pricing advantages generate disproportionate volume gains.
- Servicers must activate retention programs and borrower outreach campaigns - massive refinance waves can strip servicing portfolios quickly, requiring proactive customer engagement to retain borrowers through competitive refinancing offers before they defect to competitors.
- Secondary market participants should recalibrate prepayment models - traditional rate-driven assumptions no longer predict behavior.
The 2023 volume decrease at 5.99% rates versus 2025's recovery at 6.24% suggests a critical psychological threshold around 6.25%. Winners will be institutions that can identify and exploit these micro-rate environments through dynamic pricing and proactive borrower outreach at inflection points, and smart MSR hedging strategies.
From Analysis to Action
This analysis provides a clear blueprint for how to uncover meaningful market dynamics. Its true power is unleashed when you apply this same methodology to your own local markets. Because all real estate is local, this granular approach is essential for crafting precise strategies that effectively address the unique conditions of each community.
Ready to Continue? Get Your Exact Market Answers.
Go beyond generic insights. Polygon's interactive tools and limitless filtering empower you to tailor market data to your specific strategy.
Start your 7-day free trial.
Start your 7-day free trial.