Refinance Opportunity by CLTV

This chart isolates 2022–2024 originations (1–4 unit, fixed-rate, first lien, closed-end) with note rates ≥6.5%, segmented by CLTV. The distribution is not linear. The largest concentration is 75–80% CLTV (904,522 loans), followed by 30–60% (643,571).

Why this matters

If rates drop to 5.5%, a borrower with a $400K loan at 6.5% saves $227/month ($2,724 annually) by refinancing—enough to justify the transaction for most borrowers even at the lower end of this rate band.

Refinance potential varies by CLTV. Mid-range equity bands offer the clearest execution path, while higher-CLTV segments face appraisal sensitivity and guideline constraints. However, FHA and VA loans (estimated 1.14M in this pool) qualify for streamline refinance programs, eliminating the CLTV hurdle entirely. See our videos on FHA streamline refinance and VA IRRRL.

The real value comes from replicating this view inside your own portfolio or market footprint. CLTV distribution helps pinpoint where refinance activity is most likely to convert—and where marketing, production capacity, and retention strategy should focus. Once you do that, you can segment your refinance opportunity further by borrower demographics - e.g. age and income.

Missed our webinar on Finding Refinance Opportunity Without Trigger Leads? Watch the replay here.