Sizing the Refinance Market for Conventional Investment Property Loans

Mortgage Markets

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Data Points

Year Originations Loan Size CLTV Interest Rate Monthly Payment (HMDA) Totals 184,161 $290,792 68.01% 8.47% $2,234 2024 85,683 $296,855 68.65% 8.391% $2,260 2023 79,271 $283,495 67.29% 8.531% $2,193 2022 19,207 $293,856 68.13% 8.572% $2,285

Date Published:

September 19, 2025

Date Updated:

September 19, 2025

Chart type:

Table

Suggested Citation:

Polygon Research. Polygon Vision - HMDAVIsion. ilters : Year: 2024, 2023, 2022 / Action Type: Originations / Loan Term Range: 30yr +- / Interest Rate: 6486 of 16711 / Units: 1, 2, 3, 4 / ARM/FRM: FRM / Loan Type: Conventional / Occupancy Type: Investment Property / Lien Status: First Lien

Key Insight and Commentary

This chart precisely defines the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for a key refinance segment: investors with 30-year, fixed-rate conventional loans for investment properties, originated when interest rates were at their recent peak. The data isolates over 184,000 such loans originated in 2022, 2023, and 2024 with rates at or above 7.63%. The total potential market size is significant, representing approximately $55 billion in loan volume (184,161 loans x ~$299k avg. loan size).

Capital markets teams can use this TAM analysis to forecast potential refinance volume, enabling them to better plan their hedging strategies and loan sale executions to investors in the secondary market

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From Analysis to Action

This analysis provides a clear blueprint for how to uncover meaningful market dynamics. Its true power is unleashed when you apply this same methodology to your own local markets. Because all real estate is local, this granular approach is essential for crafting precise strategies that effectively address the unique conditions of each community.

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