Understanding First-Time Homebuyer Data Discrepancies: A Source Comparison

Mortgage Markets

Table comparing data sources for first-time homebuyer analysis

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Data Points

Source Time Coverage Basis Definition of FTHB FTHB Reported Share Median Age of Buyer NAR Survey July 2024-June 2025 ~6,100 responses Member Survey Self-identified 21% 59 Ginnie Mae +GSE RMBS Loan-Level July 2024-June 2025 ~2.4 Million Actual lending data 3-year no-ownership rule 62% NA Primary Residence Primary Residence Home Purchase Loans Home Purchase HMDA LAR Loan-Level 2024 ~3.1 Million Actual lending data No clear definition - by age cohort 40% 65% 1-4 Primary Residence Under 35 Under 45 Home Purchase Loans American Community Survey 1YR PUMS Latest in CensusVision ~3.54 Million addresses Annual national survey - focus on movers who own No clear definition - by age Age-based share 43 CPS ASEC PUMS 2025 ~95,000 Annual national survey No clear definition - by age Age-based share 42 Households - focus on movers who own

Date Published:

November 13, 2025

Date Updated:

November 13, 2025

Chart type:

Table

Suggested Citation:

olygon Research, "U.S. First-Time Homebuyer: Comparison of sources and analyses," Polygon Vision (FTHB Analysis), November 2025. Data compares FTHB share, definitions, and basis across NAR Survey (21% share), Ginnie Mae + GSE RMBS (62% share), HMDA, ACS, and CPS sources for 2024-2025.

Key Insight and Commentary

Industry leaders are often faced with conflicting headlines about the strength of the first-time homebuyer (FTHB) market. This table reconciles these competing realities by comparing the five most common FTHB data sources.

NAR Survey (21% Share): This figure is based on a member survey (a sample of ~6,100 responses) and uses a "self-identified" definition.

Ginnie Mae + GSE Data (62% Share): This figure is based on actual lending data (a census of ~2.4 million agency loans) and uses the industry-standard, technical definition: a "3-year no-ownership rule." This is the objective measure to define the FTHB market for program and underwriting purposes.

The other data sets (HMDA, ACS, CPS) do not have a true FTHB flag and must use age as a proxy (e.g., buyers under 35 or 45).

How to Use This Data:

For Lenders: Do not be alarmed by the low 21% NAR figure. The technical FTHB market, as defined by your agency partners, remains exceptionally strong at 62% of all primary residence purchases.

For Analysts: Precision is paramount. When citing FTHB data, you must specify the source and definition. Are you discussing the subjective, re-entry buyer (NAR) or the objective, technically-defined buyer (GSE)? Both are valid, but they are not the same market.

From Analysis to Action

This analysis provides a clear blueprint for how to uncover meaningful market dynamics. Its true power is unleashed when you apply this same methodology to your own local markets. Because all real estate is local, this granular approach is essential for crafting precise strategies that effectively address the unique conditions of each community.

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