Which US Cities Have the Most Competitive Refinance Markets?
MSA 2024 Rate/term Refinance Originations Borrower Shopping Index New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ 22,055 34.9% Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN 17,638 33.3% Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 17,566 38.5% Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 13,583 32.0% Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 13,360 45.6% Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ 12,998 37.7% Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 12,486 49.9% Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 12,187 42.0% Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH 11,944 25.5% Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 10,504 30.3%
To measure mortgage refinance competitiveness, we use the Borrower Shopping Index (BSI). This metric quantifies how actively borrowers are comparing offers in a specific market. It is calculated by dividing the number of non-converted applications (those withdrawn by the borrower or not accepted by the lender) by the number of closed loans. A higher BSI indicates a more competitive environment with greater "fallout."
This chart reveals that the highest-volume markets are not always the most competitive. While New York and Los Angeles lead in rate/term refinance originations, Dallas has the highest BSI at 50%. For every two loans a lender closes in Dallas, one application fails to convert. Atlanta (46%) and Washington D.C. (42%) are also hyper-competitive, signaling that borrowers are actively comparing multiple offers.
For lenders, this insight is critical for tailoring regional strategies. In high-BSI markets, a competitive rate is merely the price of entry. To win the deal, lenders must deliver a superior customer experience characterized by speed, proactive communication, and a seamless digital process. This data helps leadership decide where to invest in technology and training to reduce fallout and improve conversion rates.
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