First-Time Homebuyer Share: Why NAR’s 21% and Agency’s 62% Tell Two Different Stories

This chart highlights a critical discrepancy in how the first-time homebuyer (FTHB) market is measured, presenting two vastly different views of the same timeframe (June 2024-July 2025).

The NAR Survey (left) reports that FTHBs make up only 21% of primary residence purchases. Polygon Research's analysis of agency loan data (right), derived from our Polygon Pulse - MBS Pivot tool, shows that FTHBs account for 62% of all agency purchase loans.

Why the massive difference? The disparity stems from methodology. The NAR figure is a survey of recent buyers, which can be subject to sampling bias and recall issues. The Polygon data is an analysis of actual, closed agency loans (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae).

Lenders who build their strategy around the 21% survey number may fundamentally misunderstand their core market. They risk under-investing in FTHB-focused products (like FHA/VA), down-payment assistance programs, and originator training.

The 62% figure from actual loan data provides a far more accurate picture of the fundable opportunity. It demonstrates that FTHBs are not a niche segment but the dominant force in the agency purchase market. Lenders should align their resources, product strategy, and marketing efforts with this 62% data-driven reality, to effectively capture their share of the market.