The Federal Reserve is poised to lower interest rates in September 2025, with market expectations pointing to a high probability (80-99.8%) of at least a 25 basis point cut during the September 17-18 FOMC meeting. This move could usher in the front edge of a refinance market shift.
However, whether mortgage rates respond quickly to this Fed action depends on several factors. Mortgage rates are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield, which reflects long-term economic expectations rather than just the federal funds rate. A Fed cut could push rates down if markets anticipate further easing and economic slowdown, potentially dropping 30-year fixed rates to the low 6% range. Yet, if inflation remains sticky or geopolitical tensions (e.g., tariffs) resurface, yields could rise, slowing the rate decline. Historical patterns show mixed results. After the Fed’s 2024 cuts, mortgage rates initially dipped but later rebounded due to yield volatility. Lenders should monitor upcoming economic data (e.g., August jobs report) and the Fed’s guidance closely, as the speed of rate adjustment will shape the refinance window.
When that happens, lenders will face a refinance market shift but this one will look very different from past cycles.
That’s because Congress has just passed the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act, banning the sale of mortgage trigger leads. For years, many lenders have relied on these credit bureau-sold lists of borrowers who had just applied for a mortgage. Barring a presidential veto, that shortcut will soon be gone.
Competition in the coming refinance market will be defined not by who can buy the most leads, but by who can see borrower incentive first, act faster, and tailor their message more effectively.
The refinance wave is driven by rate/term activity - when borrowers replace an old mortgage with a new one at a lower rate.
The key ratio to watch is the refinancing ratio, which is calculated by taking the borrower’s note rate ÷ prevailing market rate.
This math explains why refi waves don’t hit everyone equally. A 100 basis point gap affects borrowers differently depending on where they start: a homeowner with an 10% note rate has a much stronger incentive than one at 7%, even though both face the same spread.
When the Fed lowers rates, millions of borrowers will cross from “no incentive” to “refinance-ready” almost overnight. The question is: who sees it first, and who acts on it?
To understand the scale of this potential wave, let's look at recent Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data on loan originations. Between 2022 and 2024, about 4.6 million home purchase loans were originated with interest rates of 6.5% or above - a segment that's particularly sensitive to rate drops. Here's a breakdown of the averages and volumes for these high-rate purchase loans:
Total: ~4.6 million loans at an average rate around 7.3%. These borrowers, who locked in during a high-rate environment, represent a massive pool for refinancing if rates fall into the low 6% range. For context, current 30-year fixed refinance rates are hovering around 6.52-6.66%, already down from over 7% earlier this year, and a Fed cut could push them lower.
Refi volumes crashed in 2023 as rates spiked but rebounded modestly in 2024 as rates eased slightly. Year-over-year, quarterly rate-and-term refinance originations (agency loans) saw 2x increase.
With home prices up and equity built, these borrowers are prime targets, but spotting them early requires data-driven foresight, and much more thoughtful and respectful outreach campaigns.
See how to do local analysis in this video.
Until now, many lenders have skipped the heavy lifting by buying trigger leads. Whenever a borrower pulled credit for a refinance, bureaus sold that data, and competitors swarmed with calls, texts, and emails.
With the passage of the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act, trigger leads can no longer be sold except in narrow circumstances, such as when a lender already has a deep financial relationship with the consumer or when the borrower has opted in to receive them. What had previously been a patchwork of state-level restrictions will become now a uniform national rule, resetting the marketing landscape.
Servicers and relationship lenders hold an advantage, while others will need to become more proactive. This marks a major strategic shift: lenders can no longer wait for credit bureaus to deliver refinance-ready prospects. They must anticipate where incentives are building and connect with borrowers earlier, on a consent-based foundation.
To get ahead, consider starting with a free trial of Polygon Vision to explore real-time HMDA insights and pinpoint these emerging opportunities - visit https://www.polygonresearch.com/polygon-vision-pricing to sign up today.
This is where Polygon Pulse and Polygon Vision give lenders a measurable edge.
Polygon Pulse delivers monthly agency loan-level data (currently updated through July 2025), providing the freshest possible read on where refinance incentives are beginning to emerge. Polygon Pulse also has granular FHA originations data in FHA Pivot, and granular and interactive CPS data to spot demographic shifts, unemployment changes, occupations, labor participation and more.
Polygon Vision complements that view with the most recent seven years of HMDA and demographic data, allowing lenders to drill into borrower cohorts, lending channels, and geographies with precision. For example, you can map the 4.6M high-rate loans from 2022-2024 to specific metro areas, counties, zip codes, or neighborhoods where opportunity is concentrated. Do you specialize in certain types of loans - for example, FHA or VA? Then filter for those and analyze the dynamics of the local opportunity.
Together, these tools make it possible to move from abstract theory to actionable strategy. Lenders can analyze borrower incentives by comparing note rates against prevailing market rates and identifying which cohorts (whether defined by interest rate, loan vintage, or product type) are approaching refinance readiness. They can then map where those borrowers are most concentrated, from broad metro areas down to county or neighborhood levels. This type of precision ensures resources are directed where opportunity is greatest. Once the patterns are clear, lenders can tailor their outreach to resonate with the realities of different borrowers: emphasizing payment relief for high-DTI households, promoting shorter loan terms for higher-income families, offering VA streamline programs in veteran-heavy communities, or highlighting equity-access opportunities in markets where home values have appreciated.
The September 2025 refinance opportunity won’t look like past waves. With the Trigger Leads ban, lenders must compete with strategy, not spam. That means:
With Polygon Pulse and Polygon Vision, you can see the refinance wave forming in real time, target the right borrowers in the right places, and deliver messages that win.
Start preparing now with a free 7-day trial of Polygon Vision - explore the data driving this shift in your local market before the wave hits. You'll get access to insights to out-strategize the competition, requiring only a credit card, and cancel anytime with no further obligation.
The wave is coming. You have to out-strategize it.
Prepare for the 2025 refinance market shift. Learn how lenders can compete without trigger leads using fresh data and smarter borrower strategy.
The Federal Reserve is poised to lower interest rates in September 2025, with market expectations pointing to a high probability (80-99.8%) of at least a 25 basis point cut during the September 17-18 FOMC meeting. This move could usher in the front edge of a refinance market shift.
However, whether mortgage rates respond quickly to this Fed action depends on several factors. Mortgage rates are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield, which reflects long-term economic expectations rather than just the federal funds rate. A Fed cut could push rates down if markets anticipate further easing and economic slowdown, potentially dropping 30-year fixed rates to the low 6% range. Yet, if inflation remains sticky or geopolitical tensions (e.g., tariffs) resurface, yields could rise, slowing the rate decline. Historical patterns show mixed results. After the Fed’s 2024 cuts, mortgage rates initially dipped but later rebounded due to yield volatility. Lenders should monitor upcoming economic data (e.g., August jobs report) and the Fed’s guidance closely, as the speed of rate adjustment will shape the refinance window.
When that happens, lenders will face a refinance market shift but this one will look very different from past cycles.
That’s because Congress has just passed the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act, banning the sale of mortgage trigger leads. For years, many lenders have relied on these credit bureau-sold lists of borrowers who had just applied for a mortgage. Barring a presidential veto, that shortcut will soon be gone.
Competition in the coming refinance market will be defined not by who can buy the most leads, but by who can see borrower incentive first, act faster, and tailor their message more effectively.
The refinance wave is driven by rate/term activity - when borrowers replace an old mortgage with a new one at a lower rate.
The key ratio to watch is the refinancing ratio, which is calculated by taking the borrower’s note rate ÷ prevailing market rate.
This math explains why refi waves don’t hit everyone equally. A 100 basis point gap affects borrowers differently depending on where they start: a homeowner with an 10% note rate has a much stronger incentive than one at 7%, even though both face the same spread.
When the Fed lowers rates, millions of borrowers will cross from “no incentive” to “refinance-ready” almost overnight. The question is: who sees it first, and who acts on it?
To understand the scale of this potential wave, let's look at recent Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data on loan originations. Between 2022 and 2024, about 4.6 million home purchase loans were originated with interest rates of 6.5% or above - a segment that's particularly sensitive to rate drops. Here's a breakdown of the averages and volumes for these high-rate purchase loans:
Total: ~4.6 million loans at an average rate around 7.3%. These borrowers, who locked in during a high-rate environment, represent a massive pool for refinancing if rates fall into the low 6% range. For context, current 30-year fixed refinance rates are hovering around 6.52-6.66%, already down from over 7% earlier this year, and a Fed cut could push them lower.
Refi volumes crashed in 2023 as rates spiked but rebounded modestly in 2024 as rates eased slightly. Year-over-year, quarterly rate-and-term refinance originations (agency loans) saw 2x increase.
With home prices up and equity built, these borrowers are prime targets, but spotting them early requires data-driven foresight, and much more thoughtful and respectful outreach campaigns.
See how to do local analysis in this video.
Until now, many lenders have skipped the heavy lifting by buying trigger leads. Whenever a borrower pulled credit for a refinance, bureaus sold that data, and competitors swarmed with calls, texts, and emails.
With the passage of the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act, trigger leads can no longer be sold except in narrow circumstances, such as when a lender already has a deep financial relationship with the consumer or when the borrower has opted in to receive them. What had previously been a patchwork of state-level restrictions will become now a uniform national rule, resetting the marketing landscape.
Servicers and relationship lenders hold an advantage, while others will need to become more proactive. This marks a major strategic shift: lenders can no longer wait for credit bureaus to deliver refinance-ready prospects. They must anticipate where incentives are building and connect with borrowers earlier, on a consent-based foundation.
To get ahead, consider starting with a free trial of Polygon Vision to explore real-time HMDA insights and pinpoint these emerging opportunities - visit https://www.polygonresearch.com/polygon-vision-pricing to sign up today.
This is where Polygon Pulse and Polygon Vision give lenders a measurable edge.
Polygon Pulse delivers monthly agency loan-level data (currently updated through July 2025), providing the freshest possible read on where refinance incentives are beginning to emerge. Polygon Pulse also has granular FHA originations data in FHA Pivot, and granular and interactive CPS data to spot demographic shifts, unemployment changes, occupations, labor participation and more.
Polygon Vision complements that view with the most recent seven years of HMDA and demographic data, allowing lenders to drill into borrower cohorts, lending channels, and geographies with precision. For example, you can map the 4.6M high-rate loans from 2022-2024 to specific metro areas, counties, zip codes, or neighborhoods where opportunity is concentrated. Do you specialize in certain types of loans - for example, FHA or VA? Then filter for those and analyze the dynamics of the local opportunity.
Together, these tools make it possible to move from abstract theory to actionable strategy. Lenders can analyze borrower incentives by comparing note rates against prevailing market rates and identifying which cohorts (whether defined by interest rate, loan vintage, or product type) are approaching refinance readiness. They can then map where those borrowers are most concentrated, from broad metro areas down to county or neighborhood levels. This type of precision ensures resources are directed where opportunity is greatest. Once the patterns are clear, lenders can tailor their outreach to resonate with the realities of different borrowers: emphasizing payment relief for high-DTI households, promoting shorter loan terms for higher-income families, offering VA streamline programs in veteran-heavy communities, or highlighting equity-access opportunities in markets where home values have appreciated.
The September 2025 refinance opportunity won’t look like past waves. With the Trigger Leads ban, lenders must compete with strategy, not spam. That means:
With Polygon Pulse and Polygon Vision, you can see the refinance wave forming in real time, target the right borrowers in the right places, and deliver messages that win.
Start preparing now with a free 7-day trial of Polygon Vision - explore the data driving this shift in your local market before the wave hits. You'll get access to insights to out-strategize the competition, requiring only a credit card, and cancel anytime with no further obligation.
The wave is coming. You have to out-strategize it.