It’s one of the most common phrases in U.S. housing and one of the least examined. I hadn’t really thought about what “first-time homebuyer” actually means until I read NAR’s latest report last week. Like most of us, I assumed we all meant the same thing. It turns out we don’t. And that single definition - who counts as a first-time buyer - completely changes how we understand the housing market.
NAR’s 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers is a long-running survey with transparent methodology:
As a result of this survey, NAR reports 21% of recent buyers are first-time homebuyers, and a median buyer age of 59.
This is a statistically structured survey of willing respondents. Its results apply to that respondent universe of about 6,100 buyers, not necessarily to the full population of home purchases.
I raise this point only because there are far larger, more representative bodies of data describing the age and composition of homebuyers — open data sources such as HMDA, the American Community Survey (ACS), the Current Population Survey’s ASEC, and Agency RMBS disclosures, among others. These datasets collectively cover millions of verified transactions and households, providing a more complete view of who is actually buying homes in the United States.
Before comparing numbers, we need the definition that governs the flow of mortgage credit, the one used by the entities that actually fund U.S. housing. In mortgage banking, first-time homebuyer (FTHB) is a regulated credit-policy term embedded in the loan-delivery and securitization systems of the Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) and Ginnie Mae.
According to the Fannie Mae Selling Guide,
“An individual is considered a first-time homebuyer who (1) is purchasing the security property; (2) will reside in the security property as a principal residence; and (3) had no ownership interest (sole or joint) in a residential property during the three-year period preceding the date of the purchase of the security property. In addition, an individual who is a displaced homemaker or single parent also will be considered a first-time homebuyer if they had no ownership interest in a principal residence (other than a joint ownership interest with a spouse) during the preceding three-year period.”
(Source: Fannie Mae Selling Guide, E-3-06, Glossary of Defined Terms)
The data reflecting this definition flows from the Uniform Residential Loan Application (URLA). It is jointly published by Fannie Mae (as Form 1003) and Freddie Mac (as Form 65). The key question that provides the data is Question 5a (A):
A. Will you occupy the property as your primary residence?
If YES, have you had an ownership interest in another property in the last three years?
Ginnie Mae defines a first-time homebuyer as a borrower who qualifies as such based on the determination of the insuring agency (e.g., FHA, VA, or USDA). For example, under HUD’s official FHA guidance, a first-time homebuyer is
“An individual who has had no ownership in a principal residence during the three-year period ending on the date of purchase of the property.”
(Source: HUD Answers, “How does HUD define a first-time homebuyer?)
Across agencies, the practical meaning converges:
This standard governs access to reduced-down-payment programs, influences pricing, and determines how loans are reported in every GSE or Ginnie Mae security. In effect, the agencies finance first-time buyers and they define them.
To observe the real world of mortgage lending to FTHBs under that definition, we analyzed the agency segment, which is the backbone of mortgage finance access in the United States, using MBS Pivot.
We matched NAR’s window (July 2024–June 2025) and filtered for purchase / primary-residence loans across Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae disclosures.
The key finding is that 61.6% of agency-backed purchase loans in that period went to first-time homebuyers (as defined above).
That’s a full-population result, drawn from millions of recorded loans, not an estimate. See the chart below for more details.
I first outlined this shift in an October 23 post based on open agency loan data, showing that first-time buyers already accounted for about 60 percent of purchase loans, evenly divided between Conventional and Government channels 2025ytd. That earlier analysis anticipated the same pattern we see here: when measured with open, standardized data, the market looks nothing like the narrative emerging from survey headlines.
NAR’s finding that the median buyer age is 59 implies half of all buyers are 59 or older - about 2.4 million out of 4.75 million. If true, that would represent the most dramatic age shift in modern housing history.
This finding is at odds with HMDA loan-level data, agency loan-level data, and census microdata.
~65% of buyers were under 45 in 2018. And in 2024, the share of these younger borrowers increased to 66.4%
About 18% of these homebuyers who are using mortgage are 55 or older. See the chart below for more details.
If half of all buyers were truly near retirement age, HMDA would reflect it. But it doesn’t.
The most plausible explanation is that there is some response bias in NAR’s small survey sample. Older, higher-equity households are more likely to respond to a mailed survey; younger, mortgage-dependent buyers dominate the actual lending data but are underrepresented in NAR’s respondents.
Let's look at Census data (ACS microdata).
We cross-checked with CensusVision using ACS 1-Year PUMS (via iPUMS) for owner-occupied movers - households who bought their homes. This analysis is based on annual survey data, like NAR's, but it covers ~ 3.5 million Households. So what did we find for this market segment?
So together, HMDA, Census, and RMBS data converge on the same insight - NAR's reported median age of homebuyers doesn't describe the full distribution of homebuyers.
In the table below, we attempt to provide an overview of the available methods to quantify and describe first-time homebuyers. We welcome your feedback.
Based on our assessment of these sources, the NAR survey stands out as an outlier, creating the impression of aging and shrinking first-time homebuyer market segment. But open loan-level data and census microdata, grounded in standardized and transparent definitions, and in full coverage, tell a consistent story of vibrant participation of younger homebuyer cohorts.
The alternative picture of 2024–2025 homebuyers looks very different from the survey headlines. Almost 62% of agency purchase loans went to first-time buyers (FTHB). Roughly 40% of borrowers of 1–4 unit, primary-residence purchase loans were under 35, and two-thirds were under 45.
The median homebuyer age is about 42, not 59. Younger and first-time buyers haven’t disappeared. FTHBs are visible in every loan file, every disclosure, every census dataset.
The story isn’t one of absence, but of measurement and definition: who we count as a first-time homebuyer determines what we believe about the market.
And beyond this national view, the real opportunity lies in the local story of first-time buyers - one that open datasets like HMDA, Agency RMBS, and Census microdata already make visible. When modeled in Polygon Vision and Polygon Pulse, these data become actionable intelligence: revealing where entry-level demand is emerging, how local borrower profiles are shifting, and what lenders and investors can do to capture that market with precision.
The insight isn’t just that first-time homebuyers are still here - it’s that the data to reach them already exist. The challenge now is to use it.
The analyses in this piece were built using Polygon Vision and Polygon Pulse, which model open agency and census datasets down to the loan level. You can explore your own markets and borrower segments — including first-time buyers — using these same tools.
→ Start a complimentary 7-day trial of Polygon Pulse or Polygon Vision
NAR's 2025 first-time homebuyer survey is missing the full picture. We compare it to loan-level data from HMDA, the GSEs, and Census to find the truth.
It’s one of the most common phrases in U.S. housing and one of the least examined. I hadn’t really thought about what “first-time homebuyer” actually means until I read NAR’s latest report last week. Like most of us, I assumed we all meant the same thing. It turns out we don’t. And that single definition - who counts as a first-time buyer - completely changes how we understand the housing market.
NAR’s 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers is a long-running survey with transparent methodology:
As a result of this survey, NAR reports 21% of recent buyers are first-time homebuyers, and a median buyer age of 59.
This is a statistically structured survey of willing respondents. Its results apply to that respondent universe of about 6,100 buyers, not necessarily to the full population of home purchases.
I raise this point only because there are far larger, more representative bodies of data describing the age and composition of homebuyers — open data sources such as HMDA, the American Community Survey (ACS), the Current Population Survey’s ASEC, and Agency RMBS disclosures, among others. These datasets collectively cover millions of verified transactions and households, providing a more complete view of who is actually buying homes in the United States.
Before comparing numbers, we need the definition that governs the flow of mortgage credit, the one used by the entities that actually fund U.S. housing. In mortgage banking, first-time homebuyer (FTHB) is a regulated credit-policy term embedded in the loan-delivery and securitization systems of the Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) and Ginnie Mae.
According to the Fannie Mae Selling Guide,
“An individual is considered a first-time homebuyer who (1) is purchasing the security property; (2) will reside in the security property as a principal residence; and (3) had no ownership interest (sole or joint) in a residential property during the three-year period preceding the date of the purchase of the security property. In addition, an individual who is a displaced homemaker or single parent also will be considered a first-time homebuyer if they had no ownership interest in a principal residence (other than a joint ownership interest with a spouse) during the preceding three-year period.”
(Source: Fannie Mae Selling Guide, E-3-06, Glossary of Defined Terms)
The data reflecting this definition flows from the Uniform Residential Loan Application (URLA). It is jointly published by Fannie Mae (as Form 1003) and Freddie Mac (as Form 65). The key question that provides the data is Question 5a (A):
A. Will you occupy the property as your primary residence?
If YES, have you had an ownership interest in another property in the last three years?
Ginnie Mae defines a first-time homebuyer as a borrower who qualifies as such based on the determination of the insuring agency (e.g., FHA, VA, or USDA). For example, under HUD’s official FHA guidance, a first-time homebuyer is
“An individual who has had no ownership in a principal residence during the three-year period ending on the date of purchase of the property.”
(Source: HUD Answers, “How does HUD define a first-time homebuyer?)
Across agencies, the practical meaning converges:
This standard governs access to reduced-down-payment programs, influences pricing, and determines how loans are reported in every GSE or Ginnie Mae security. In effect, the agencies finance first-time buyers and they define them.
To observe the real world of mortgage lending to FTHBs under that definition, we analyzed the agency segment, which is the backbone of mortgage finance access in the United States, using MBS Pivot.
We matched NAR’s window (July 2024–June 2025) and filtered for purchase / primary-residence loans across Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae disclosures.
The key finding is that 61.6% of agency-backed purchase loans in that period went to first-time homebuyers (as defined above).
That’s a full-population result, drawn from millions of recorded loans, not an estimate. See the chart below for more details.
I first outlined this shift in an October 23 post based on open agency loan data, showing that first-time buyers already accounted for about 60 percent of purchase loans, evenly divided between Conventional and Government channels 2025ytd. That earlier analysis anticipated the same pattern we see here: when measured with open, standardized data, the market looks nothing like the narrative emerging from survey headlines.
NAR’s finding that the median buyer age is 59 implies half of all buyers are 59 or older - about 2.4 million out of 4.75 million. If true, that would represent the most dramatic age shift in modern housing history.
This finding is at odds with HMDA loan-level data, agency loan-level data, and census microdata.
~65% of buyers were under 45 in 2018. And in 2024, the share of these younger borrowers increased to 66.4%
About 18% of these homebuyers who are using mortgage are 55 or older. See the chart below for more details.
If half of all buyers were truly near retirement age, HMDA would reflect it. But it doesn’t.
The most plausible explanation is that there is some response bias in NAR’s small survey sample. Older, higher-equity households are more likely to respond to a mailed survey; younger, mortgage-dependent buyers dominate the actual lending data but are underrepresented in NAR’s respondents.
Let's look at Census data (ACS microdata).
We cross-checked with CensusVision using ACS 1-Year PUMS (via iPUMS) for owner-occupied movers - households who bought their homes. This analysis is based on annual survey data, like NAR's, but it covers ~ 3.5 million Households. So what did we find for this market segment?
So together, HMDA, Census, and RMBS data converge on the same insight - NAR's reported median age of homebuyers doesn't describe the full distribution of homebuyers.
In the table below, we attempt to provide an overview of the available methods to quantify and describe first-time homebuyers. We welcome your feedback.
Based on our assessment of these sources, the NAR survey stands out as an outlier, creating the impression of aging and shrinking first-time homebuyer market segment. But open loan-level data and census microdata, grounded in standardized and transparent definitions, and in full coverage, tell a consistent story of vibrant participation of younger homebuyer cohorts.
The alternative picture of 2024–2025 homebuyers looks very different from the survey headlines. Almost 62% of agency purchase loans went to first-time buyers (FTHB). Roughly 40% of borrowers of 1–4 unit, primary-residence purchase loans were under 35, and two-thirds were under 45.
The median homebuyer age is about 42, not 59. Younger and first-time buyers haven’t disappeared. FTHBs are visible in every loan file, every disclosure, every census dataset.
The story isn’t one of absence, but of measurement and definition: who we count as a first-time homebuyer determines what we believe about the market.
And beyond this national view, the real opportunity lies in the local story of first-time buyers - one that open datasets like HMDA, Agency RMBS, and Census microdata already make visible. When modeled in Polygon Vision and Polygon Pulse, these data become actionable intelligence: revealing where entry-level demand is emerging, how local borrower profiles are shifting, and what lenders and investors can do to capture that market with precision.
The insight isn’t just that first-time homebuyers are still here - it’s that the data to reach them already exist. The challenge now is to use it.
The analyses in this piece were built using Polygon Vision and Polygon Pulse, which model open agency and census datasets down to the loan level. You can explore your own markets and borrower segments — including first-time buyers — using these same tools.
→ Start a complimentary 7-day trial of Polygon Pulse or Polygon Vision