Mortgage Interest Rate Trends 2025–2026

Mortgage lenders, brokers, and credit unions should monitor this chart because rate spreads between the market benchmark (PMMS 30) and government loan programs directly influence borrower demand, product strategy, and competitive pricing.

From February 2025 to January 2026, the PMMS 30 benchmark declined from 6.84% to roughly 6.01%, while government-backed purchase loans remained consistently lower: FHA around 6.13%, USDA near 6.02%, and VA roughly 5.90% by January 2026. These spreads—often 30–50 basis points below the benchmark—can materially affect borrower qualification and monthly payment affordability.

For brokers and retail originators, these pricing differences signal when government programs may offer the most competitive option for first-time or payment-sensitive borrowers. For credit unions and community lenders, understanding these spreads helps maintain competitive offerings without relying solely on conventional products.

It is important to interpret the January 2026 data as an early signal rather than a full market representation. Because mortgages are typically securitized weeks or months after origination, only a small portion of January production is visible in the dataset today. As additional loans move through the securitization pipeline, the final rate distribution may shift.