Agency Share of Refinance Volume by Month 2025-2026

The chart shows a clear downward drift in Ginnie Mae (government) share from spring 2025 into early 2026, with conventional channels gaining share.

This reflects structural differences in refinance incentives. Government borrowers—especially FHA/VA—entered the cycle with lower starting rates, making them less responsive to modest rate moves. Conventional borrowers typically refinance with ~50–100 bps incentive, while government loans often require a larger rate drop.

This creates a sequencing dynamic: conventional loans lead early, while government volumes lag. Current data suggests the market remains in early-cycle conditions, with conventional borrowers reactivating first and government borrowers still relatively “rate locked.”

For lenders, this improves near-term execution and pipeline quality. However, the government segment remains a significant embedded opportunity. Streamline refinance programs (FHA/VA IRRRL) can accelerate quickly once rate thresholds are met, often with lower friction and faster turn times.

Strategically, lenders should maximize conventional recapture today while positioning operations, pricing, and outreach to capture a potentially sharp GNMA streamline-driven wave if rates decline further.