First-Time Homebuyer Age Trends: HMDA FHA Proxy Shows a Younger 2024 Buyer Mix

This chart presents a methodology-based proxy for first-time homebuyer age trends using HMDA. Because HMDA does not include a first-time homebuyer flag, Polygon Research uses FHA purchase, first-lien, primary-residence loans as a practical proxy for the first-time buyer population. On that basis, the estimated median borrower age declined modestly from about 37 in 2018 to about 36 in 2024.

The distribution also shifted toward younger cohorts. The 25-34 group, already the largest segment, rose from 35.8% to 37.5%, while the under-25 share increased from 8.2% to 9.8%. Meanwhile, the 35-44 cohort fell from 28.0% to 26.2%. The takeaway is not that HMDA directly identifies first-time buyers by age, but that this proxy suggests entry-level purchase demand remains centered in younger households even in a high-rate environment.

For lenders, this matters in product strategy, marketing, and borrower experience. A younger proxy population points to continued importance of FHA execution, down payment assistance, payment-sensitive underwriting, and education-driven conversion. It also helps decision makers better align outreach, staffing, and product design with where FTHB opportunity appears to be concentrated. When 2025 HMDA is released, this series should provide an important read on whether that shift continued or reversed.