U.S. Mortgage Loan Originations by Lender Type, 2018–2025

U.S. mortgage loan originations reached 6.8 million in 2025, representing a 10% year-over-year growth led by Independent Mortgage Banks (IMBs), with a projected path to 7.5 million in 2026.
The primary takeaway from the 2025 data is a resilient 10% year-over-year jump in total originations compared to 2024. This growth was led overwhelmingly by IMBs, which reached 3.7 million originations in 2025. While Banks and Credit Unions remained stable, IMBs have captured the majority of the market "thaw," proving more agile in a purchase-heavy environment.
For lenders and analysts, this trend marks the definitive end of the post-pandemic contraction. With total volume hitting 6.8 million units in 2025, Polygon Research projects this momentum will continue, with a 2026 mortgage forecast of 7.5 million originations.
This shift confirms that entry-level and purchase-driven demand is increasingly flowing through non-bank channels. As detailed in our official ranking of top U.S. mortgage lenders, institutional agility and data-driven targeting remain the key differentiators in this recovering market. Read the full Press Release: Polygon Research Releases 2025 HMDA Analysis in HMDAVision, Ranking Top U.S. Mortgage Lenders
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