Credit Union First-Time Homebuyer Loans: 2026 Forecast & Seasonal Trends

Credit unions originated an estimated 30,211 first-time homebuyer (FTHB) purchase mortgages delivered to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae in 2025.

This chart is a planning tool. The monthly curve makes the seasonal pattern explicit: a January trough near 1,800 loans, a spring ramp, a June–August peak above 3,000, and a Q4 decline.

Jan–Feb 2026 actuals are already tracking modestly above 2024 and 2025 entry points — early validation of the forecast before the Mar–Apr securitization lag zone resolves.

For credit union leadership, this is a calibration signal. Underwriter capacity, member outreach, and warehouse line sizing should be scaled to a stronger spring–summer than 2025 delivered.

For secondary market desks, the forecast implies modestly higher agency deliveries from the CU channel — relevant for pool composition and TBA hedging.

MSR investors should weigh FTHB-heavy production's distinct prepay profile.

Scope is laser-focused: agency purchase originations (Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie) where the seller/issuer is a credit union and at least one borrower is a first-time buyer. It excludes portfolio-held loans and non-agency execution.

Related FTHB charts — FTHB share by loan product, FTHB age trends, and more.