First-Time Homebuyer Loan Mix

Origination Trends
First-Time Homebuyer
Line chart showing quarterly agency first-time homebuyer purchase loan counts from 2021 to 2026, with combined FHA, VA and USDA volume converging with conventional volume.
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Data Points
Quarter | Conventional | Government 2021 Q1 | 265k | 200k 2021 Q2 | 360k | 240k 2021 Q3 | 350k | 245k 2021 Q4 | 295k | 220k 2022 Q1 | 235k | 165k 2022 Q2 | 290k | 190k 2022 Q3 | 240k | 185k 2022 Q4 | 170k | 145k 2023 Q1 | 160k | 135k 2023 Q2 | 220k | 175k 2023 Q3 | 210k | 165k 2023 Q4 | 165k | 145k 2024 Q1 | 165k | 140k 2024 Q2 | 225k | 185k 2024 Q3 | 220k | 180k 2024 Q4 | 180k | 165k 2025 Q1 | 155k | 150k 2025 Q2 | 210k | 205k 2025 Q3 | 205k | 190k 2025 Q4 | 185k | 170k 2026 Q1 | 155k | 145k
Are first-time buyers choosing FHA, VA or conventional loans?
Combined FHA, VA and USDA volume now nearly matches conventional.
Date Published:
July 3, 2026
Date Updated:
July 3, 2026
Chart type:
Line Chart
Suggested Citation:
Polygon Research, “Quarterly Agency First-Time Homebuyer Purchase Loan Counts: Conventional vs. Government, 2021–2026,” Polygon Pulse (MBS Pivot). Data through May 2026. Scope: agency first-time homebuyer purchase originations; conventional and government loans, with government defined as FHA, VA and USDA. Metric: quarterly loan count. Accessed July 3, 2026.
Key insights

First-time buyers are using government-backed and conventional financing in nearly equal numbers. This chart measures all agency first-time homebuyer purchase originations by loan count, including fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages across all loan terms. It compares conventional loans with the combined total for FHA, VA and USDA—not dollar volume, applications or borrower preference.

Conventional loans held a much wider lead in 2021, but the gap narrowed as both series declined and followed similar quarterly patterns. Around the May 2025 reference point, the two were nearly even; conventional remains slightly ahead in the latest quarter shown. A related Polygon analysis of the conventional and government first-time buyer profiles shows that similar loan counts can still represent borrowers with different credit, DTI and LTV characteristics.

For MLOs and lenders, the closer mix supports maintaining strong capabilities across conventional, FHA, VA and USDA lending, including pricing, training, underwriting, fulfillment and investor delivery. A separate Polygon view of first-time buyer market share in agency 30-year fixed purchase loans provides narrower product context, while its comparison of first-time homebuyer data sources explains why estimates can vary by population and definition.

From Analysis to Action

This analysis provides a clear blueprint for how to uncover meaningful market dynamics. Its true power is unleashed when you apply this same methodology to your own local markets. Because all real estate is local, this granular approach is essential for crafting precise strategies that effectively address the unique conditions of each community.

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