Agency ARM Share vs Fixed-to-ARM Spread

Loan Pricing

Origination Trends

Line chart, Q1 2022 to Q3 2026, quarterly. A gold line shows ARM share of agency MBS loans holding under 1% through 2024, then rising to 3.9% in Q2 2026 and easing to a preliminary 3.1% in Q3. A blue line shows the fixed-to-ARM note-rate spread, 30-year fixed minus ARM, near 0.7 percentage points through 2024 and above 1.0 since Q3 2025. Source: Polygon Research, Polygon Pulse (MBS Pivot), updated October 9, 2026.

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Data Points

Chart | ARM share of agency MBS vs the fixed-to-ARM spread | quarterly | Q1 2022 to Q3 2026 Scope | ARM and 30-year fixed-rate loans in agency MBS, by origination quarter | all loan types and purposes | MBS Pivot updated Oct 9, 2026 ARM share | ARM loans as a percent of ARM plus 30-year fixed loans, by count | same population as the spread | measured against all agency loans, as in earlier Polygon Research charts, the share runs a little lower Fixed-to-ARM spread | average 30-year fixed note rate minus average ARM note rate | count-weighted | percentage points | realized spread, after mix and permanent buydowns ARM share | Q4 2024 low 0.2% | Q3 2025 2.1% | Q2 2026 3.9% | Q3 2026 preliminary 3.1% Fixed-to-ARM spread | 2022 to 2024 about 0.7 | stepped up Q4 2024 | above 1.0 every quarter since Q3 2025 | Q2 2026 1.24 | Q3 2026 preliminary 1.36, widest in series Lead-lag | spread moved first; ARM share followed about one quarter later Agency ARM volume | 2022 35,041 | 2025 57,443 | 2026 through September 77,080 (preliminary) Agency ARM mix by loan type | 2022: conventional 94%, FHA 4%, VA 2% | 2026 YTD: conventional 49%, FHA 39%, VA 12% FHA ARMs | 2022 1,268 | 2026 through September 29,772 2026 YTD agency ARM averages | conventional $470,000 at 5.17% | FHA $350,000 at 4.64% | VA $482,000 at 4.76% | all ARMs $425,000 at 4.91%, FICO 731, DTI 41% 2022 agency ARM averages | $378,000 at 4.37%, FICO 753, DTI 37% Agency ARM purpose | 2022: purchase 59%, refinance 41% | 2026 YTD: purchase 52%, refinance 48% Average 2026 30-year fixed loan amount | about $355,000 Preliminary | Q3 2026 loans still being securitized; figures will change; chart updated monthly as pools report Full quarterly and monthly series, and cuts by seller/issuer, loan type, purpose, credit score, LTV and state | Polygon Pulse, MBS Pivot

Why are adjustable-rate mortgages coming back?

The spread paid for them, and it moved first. The fixed-to-ARM note-rate spread crossed a percentage point in Q3 2025; agency ARM share followed, from 0.2% of ARM and 30-year fixed loans to 3.9% in Q2 2026 (preliminary Q3: 3.1%, spread 1.36). 77,080 agency ARMs through September 2026, half of them FHA and VA.

Date Published:

September 11, 2026

Date Updated:

October 11, 2026

Chart type:

Line Chart

Suggested Citation:

Polygon Research, "The Spread That Brought ARMs Back to Agency MBS," Polygon Pulse – MBS Pivot, published September 11, 2026, updated October 11, 2026. Scope: ARM and 30-year fixed-rate loans in agency MBS by origination quarter, Q1 2022 to Q3 2026. Metrics: ARM share of ARM plus 30-year fixed loan count; average 30-year fixed note rate minus average ARM note rate, count-weighted, in percentage points. MBS Pivot data updated October 9, 2026; Q3 2026 preliminary. Accessed October 11, 2026.

Key insights

Agency ARM share went from 0.2% of ARM and 30-year fixed loans in Q4 2024 to 3.9% in Q2 2026. The preliminary read on Q3 2026 is 3.1%, with the spread at 1.36 points, the widest in the series. Q3 is still being securitized; we update monthly as pools report. The spread moved first; ARM demand followed a quarter later.

Volume: 77,080 agency ARMs through September 2026, past all of 2025 and more than double 2022. Composition changed more than volume. In 2022, 94% of agency ARMs were conventional. In 2026 they are 49% conventional, 39% FHA and 12% VA; FHA ARMs went from 1,268 to 29,772. The conventional ARM averages $470,000 at 5.17%, the FHA ARM $350,000 at 4.64%, and together they average $425,000 against $355,000 for a 30-year fixed. Part of the wider spread is that mix.

Two borrowers are taking the lower rate: the large-balance conventional borrower and the payment-sensitive FHA borrower. A lender with a competitive hybrid ARM in only one of those boxes is conceding the other, and in agency execution the winners are mostly independent mortgage bankers. Three checks in MBS Pivot, updated October 9: your ARM share and spread against the market’s, your ARM mix by loan type, and which seller/issuers are winning the ARM borrower in your states. Related: first-time buyers, ARM rates by loan type. Explore in MBS Pivot.

Who is taking ARMs in 2026?

Two borrowers. The conventional ARM borrower averages $470,000 at 5.17%; the FHA ARM borrower averages $350,000 at 4.64%. FHA and VA loans are now half of agency ARMs, up from 6% in 2022, and FHA ARMs went from 1,268 to 29,772.

How much lower are ARM rates than 30-year fixed?

About 1.36 percentage points in preliminary Q3 2026, the widest in the series since 2022. On a $425,000 loan, the average agency ARM, that is about $360 a month during the fixed period.

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