Agency ARM Share vs Fixed-to-ARM Spread

ARMs were 4.0% of agency ARM and 30-year fixed loans originated in Q2 2026, up from 0.24% in Q4 2024. The fixed-to-ARM spread widened over the same period, from a 2022 to 2024 range of 0.5 to 0.9 percentage points to 1.23. Q2 2026 produced 35,837 agency ARMs, 8.5 times the Q2 2024 count.

The spread is the average note rate on 30-year fixed loans minus the average on ARMs, both from loans in agency MBS in the same origination quarter, count-weighted. It is a realized spread, after mix and any permanent buydowns, so it runs wider than the rate-sheet spread in MBA’s weekly survey. The MBA survey puts the ARM share of applications near 8% with an average ARM balance above $900,000, a jumbo, portfolio market. This chart counts conforming-balance loans; the average agency ARM is $424,000. See the same spread for first-time buyers and ARM note rates by loan type.

The comparison works at the lender level. MBS Pivot carries both series for every seller/issuer, so a lender can plot its own ARM share and spread by quarter against the agency market, against a peer set such as the top 10 agency ARM seller/issuers, banks versus independent mortgage bankers or builder-affiliated lenders. Share that lags the market at the same spread points to product and channel. A spread narrower than the market’s points to pricing. Explore ARM originations in MBS Pivot.