FHA Adjustable-Rate Refinance Trends

ARMs represented 7.2% of FHA refinance loans by count in Jan–May 2026, up from 0.2% during the same period in 2025. FHA refinance volume also increased, from 90,512 loans to 133,847, so the shift reflects a larger ARM share within a larger refinance market. The shift also aligns with the broader return of adjustable-rate mortgages across the agency market, although the two analyses cover different loan populations.

For FHA lenders, the increase warrants a fresh review of ARM eligibility criteria, pricing strategy and loan-officer guidance as refinance conversations expand beyond traditional fixed-rate options. Servicers can use note rate, remaining term, borrower objectives and capacity for future payment changes to identify appropriate retention opportunities. Secondary-marketing teams should also confirm investor outlets, margins, pull-through assumptions and pipeline reporting before expanding FHA ARM refinance activity.

The chart does not show borrower savings, ARM structures, note-rate differences, or loan performance, and it does not indicate that an ARM is appropriate for any individual borrower. Both periods cover January through May, but each share is calculated from a different annual refinance population.