First-time buyers have not disappeared from the mortgage market. In the first half of 2026, they accounted for 60.3% of purchase loans delivered to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae: 530,048 of 879,214 loans.
That result looks incompatible with survey estimates that place the first-time-buyer share closer to one in five. It is not. The two figures answer different questions.
Surveys of all home purchases include cash transactions, which are more common among repeat buyers and investors. Agency loan data describes financed purchases in the conventional and government channels. For lenders, servicers, and capital-markets teams, that is the market arriving for underwriting and execution.
The distinction matters because a share can be both accurate and easy to misread. First-time buyers can take a larger share when repeat buyers retreat, even if total purchase volume remains weak. A 60% share therefore does not mean first-time buyers are having an easy year. It means they have become the central source of financed purchase demand.
The category itself is broader than the phrase suggests. In most agency and government programs, a first-time homebuyer is someone who has not held an ownership interest in a principal residence during the previous three years. Some programs also include displaced homemakers and single parents who previously owned only with a spouse. As we have written before, the answer depends partly on who is doing the counting.
The average first-time buyer in the first half of 2026 borrowed $339,695 at 5.93%, with a 91% loan-to-value ratio and a 40.1% debt-to-income ratio. The average repeat buyer borrowed $388,470 at 5.99%, with an 80% LTV and a 39.7% DTI. Repeat buyers also carried an average credit score of 754, compared with 726 for first-time buyers.
The lower average note rate for first-time buyers is not evidence that lenders priced thinner files more favorably. It reflects product mix. Government execution accounted for 48.8% of first-time-buyer purchase loans, and the average 30-year FHA fixed rate was 5.85%, compared with 6.10% for the conventional equivalent.
That creates two markets inside one label. One is conventional and exposed to credit-based pricing adjustments. The other is government-backed and shaped by a different pricing and insurance structure. Portfolio, margin, and product analysis should not average the two together and assume the result describes either one.
The age profile also challenges a familiar narrative. Our First-Time Homebuyer Age Trends analysis puts the median at 36, down one year since 2018. Over the same period, the under-25 share rose from 8.2% to 10.5%, while the 35-to-44 share contracted.
This does not mean younger households face fewer barriers. It means the buyers who reached closing in this segment were not steadily aging. The distinction between people who want to buy and those who successfully finance a purchase remains essential.
Condominiums accounted for only 10.8% of the 271,133 conventional first-time purchases delivered to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, roughly one in nine.
Yet first-time buyers purchasing condos had the strongest average credit score in the conventional book: 760, compared with 750 for detached single-family homes and 756 for planned unit developments. Their average loan was also the smallest, at $326,349, versus $339,039 for single-family homes and $390,660 for PUDs. They paid an average rate of 6.09%, 23 basis points above the PUD rate.
The implication is uncomfortable but useful. The lowest-balance conventional entry point is being used by some of the strongest-credit borrowers, in limited numbers, and at a rate premium. Borrower readiness is not the primary constraint.
Project eligibility, property insurance, HOA reserves, deferred maintenance, investor concentration, and other project-level rules are more plausible barriers. That means the entry-level supply problem is not only about how many homes exist. It is also about how many can be financed through the channels first-time buyers use.
For lenders, this is a product and market-development question. For policymakers and housing organizations, it is a reminder that adding units does not automatically create financeable entry-level ownership.
January through April produced 430,571 first-time-buyer purchase loans. May and June are still maturing in the agency disclosures because loans appear only after securitization, while the first four months are effectively complete.
Rather than turn incomplete months into a precise forecast, we applied three second-half patterns the market has already produced. The result is a full-year range of 1.24 million to 1.52 million first-time-buyer agency purchase loans, with a central case of 1.43 million.
This is scenario analysis, not a confidence interval.
The low case uses the 2022 pattern, when a strong first half gave way to a sharp second-half slowdown as rates repriced. Applied to the 2026 base, that path produces 1.24 million loans.
The central case uses 2023, the most recent full year originated in a rate environment resembling the present one. Its second half was roughly level with its first, producing 1.43 million loans in the 2026 scenario.
The high case uses 2021, when second-half volume ran 15% above the first half. That path produces 1.52 million loans.
The central monthly path peaks near 147,000 loans in May, remains in the 120,000s through August, and falls to roughly 104,000 in November before the typical December improvement. By year-end, the monthly difference between the low and high paths widens to about 29,000 loans.
First-time-buyer share is likely to remain at or above 60% of agency purchase originations through 2026. Volume is less certain.
Mortgage rates will matter, but so will the response of inventory. More listings do not help equally if the available homes sit outside first-time-buyer price points or fail project-level eligibility tests. Government execution will remain important because it supports nearly half of the segment and helps explain its pricing. Insurance and HOA costs can change affordability even when the note rate does not. Local labor markets, property types, and product availability will determine where national momentum translates into closings.
There are also signs that the standard first-time-buyer profile is too simple. More than half of these buyers signed alone. The largest individual credit band was 780 and above. At the opposite edge of leverage, the heaviest FICO-by-LTV cell was 99.7% government, with conventional loans accounting for only 154 of 49,251 loans.
These are not minor details. They describe a market split across strong-credit conventional borrowers, highly leveraged government borrowers, solo purchasers, and local supply systems that treat property types differently.
The question for the second half is not whether first-time buyers will appear. They already represent six in ten agency-financed purchases. The question is whether lenders, builders, policymakers, and housing organizations will respond to the buyers who are actually reaching the market.
That response should be local. A national share cannot tell a lender which counties are gaining younger buyers, where government execution is doing most of the work, which peer institutions are winning, or whether condo eligibility is suppressing an otherwise viable market. Those decisions require the first-time-buyer profile to be connected with geography, product, property, borrower, and competitive context.
Start a complimentary trial to examine these same measures for your markets, peer group, and portfolio before the second-half plan is fixed.
Method. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae loan-level disclosures; purchase loans only; first-time-buyer flag as reported by the originating lender; year to date through June 2026. Analysis in Polygon Pulse (MBS Pivot). Averages are loan-count weighted. Property type covers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac only because Ginnie Mae does not report it at this level. Age analysis uses HMDA loan-level data with FHA purchase, first-lien, primary-residence, one-to-four-unit loans as a proxy because HMDA carries no first-time-buyer flag. The full-year scenarios apply observed 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasonal shapes to settled January-April 2026 volume; the monthly central path holds the 2023 shape constant and varies the level.
First-time buyers took 60.3% of agency purchase loans in the first half of 2026. We examine who is buying, what is constraining supply, and three paths for the rest of the year.
First-time buyers have not disappeared from the mortgage market. In the first half of 2026, they accounted for 60.3% of purchase loans delivered to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae: 530,048 of 879,214 loans.
That result looks incompatible with survey estimates that place the first-time-buyer share closer to one in five. It is not. The two figures answer different questions.
Surveys of all home purchases include cash transactions, which are more common among repeat buyers and investors. Agency loan data describes financed purchases in the conventional and government channels. For lenders, servicers, and capital-markets teams, that is the market arriving for underwriting and execution.
The distinction matters because a share can be both accurate and easy to misread. First-time buyers can take a larger share when repeat buyers retreat, even if total purchase volume remains weak. A 60% share therefore does not mean first-time buyers are having an easy year. It means they have become the central source of financed purchase demand.
The category itself is broader than the phrase suggests. In most agency and government programs, a first-time homebuyer is someone who has not held an ownership interest in a principal residence during the previous three years. Some programs also include displaced homemakers and single parents who previously owned only with a spouse. As we have written before, the answer depends partly on who is doing the counting.
The average first-time buyer in the first half of 2026 borrowed $339,695 at 5.93%, with a 91% loan-to-value ratio and a 40.1% debt-to-income ratio. The average repeat buyer borrowed $388,470 at 5.99%, with an 80% LTV and a 39.7% DTI. Repeat buyers also carried an average credit score of 754, compared with 726 for first-time buyers.
The lower average note rate for first-time buyers is not evidence that lenders priced thinner files more favorably. It reflects product mix. Government execution accounted for 48.8% of first-time-buyer purchase loans, and the average 30-year FHA fixed rate was 5.85%, compared with 6.10% for the conventional equivalent.
That creates two markets inside one label. One is conventional and exposed to credit-based pricing adjustments. The other is government-backed and shaped by a different pricing and insurance structure. Portfolio, margin, and product analysis should not average the two together and assume the result describes either one.
The age profile also challenges a familiar narrative. Our First-Time Homebuyer Age Trends analysis puts the median at 36, down one year since 2018. Over the same period, the under-25 share rose from 8.2% to 10.5%, while the 35-to-44 share contracted.
This does not mean younger households face fewer barriers. It means the buyers who reached closing in this segment were not steadily aging. The distinction between people who want to buy and those who successfully finance a purchase remains essential.
Condominiums accounted for only 10.8% of the 271,133 conventional first-time purchases delivered to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, roughly one in nine.
Yet first-time buyers purchasing condos had the strongest average credit score in the conventional book: 760, compared with 750 for detached single-family homes and 756 for planned unit developments. Their average loan was also the smallest, at $326,349, versus $339,039 for single-family homes and $390,660 for PUDs. They paid an average rate of 6.09%, 23 basis points above the PUD rate.
The implication is uncomfortable but useful. The lowest-balance conventional entry point is being used by some of the strongest-credit borrowers, in limited numbers, and at a rate premium. Borrower readiness is not the primary constraint.
Project eligibility, property insurance, HOA reserves, deferred maintenance, investor concentration, and other project-level rules are more plausible barriers. That means the entry-level supply problem is not only about how many homes exist. It is also about how many can be financed through the channels first-time buyers use.
For lenders, this is a product and market-development question. For policymakers and housing organizations, it is a reminder that adding units does not automatically create financeable entry-level ownership.
January through April produced 430,571 first-time-buyer purchase loans. May and June are still maturing in the agency disclosures because loans appear only after securitization, while the first four months are effectively complete.
Rather than turn incomplete months into a precise forecast, we applied three second-half patterns the market has already produced. The result is a full-year range of 1.24 million to 1.52 million first-time-buyer agency purchase loans, with a central case of 1.43 million.
This is scenario analysis, not a confidence interval.
The low case uses the 2022 pattern, when a strong first half gave way to a sharp second-half slowdown as rates repriced. Applied to the 2026 base, that path produces 1.24 million loans.
The central case uses 2023, the most recent full year originated in a rate environment resembling the present one. Its second half was roughly level with its first, producing 1.43 million loans in the 2026 scenario.
The high case uses 2021, when second-half volume ran 15% above the first half. That path produces 1.52 million loans.
The central monthly path peaks near 147,000 loans in May, remains in the 120,000s through August, and falls to roughly 104,000 in November before the typical December improvement. By year-end, the monthly difference between the low and high paths widens to about 29,000 loans.
First-time-buyer share is likely to remain at or above 60% of agency purchase originations through 2026. Volume is less certain.
Mortgage rates will matter, but so will the response of inventory. More listings do not help equally if the available homes sit outside first-time-buyer price points or fail project-level eligibility tests. Government execution will remain important because it supports nearly half of the segment and helps explain its pricing. Insurance and HOA costs can change affordability even when the note rate does not. Local labor markets, property types, and product availability will determine where national momentum translates into closings.
There are also signs that the standard first-time-buyer profile is too simple. More than half of these buyers signed alone. The largest individual credit band was 780 and above. At the opposite edge of leverage, the heaviest FICO-by-LTV cell was 99.7% government, with conventional loans accounting for only 154 of 49,251 loans.
These are not minor details. They describe a market split across strong-credit conventional borrowers, highly leveraged government borrowers, solo purchasers, and local supply systems that treat property types differently.
The question for the second half is not whether first-time buyers will appear. They already represent six in ten agency-financed purchases. The question is whether lenders, builders, policymakers, and housing organizations will respond to the buyers who are actually reaching the market.
That response should be local. A national share cannot tell a lender which counties are gaining younger buyers, where government execution is doing most of the work, which peer institutions are winning, or whether condo eligibility is suppressing an otherwise viable market. Those decisions require the first-time-buyer profile to be connected with geography, product, property, borrower, and competitive context.
Start a complimentary trial to examine these same measures for your markets, peer group, and portfolio before the second-half plan is fixed.
Method. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae loan-level disclosures; purchase loans only; first-time-buyer flag as reported by the originating lender; year to date through June 2026. Analysis in Polygon Pulse (MBS Pivot). Averages are loan-count weighted. Property type covers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac only because Ginnie Mae does not report it at this level. Age analysis uses HMDA loan-level data with FHA purchase, first-lien, primary-residence, one-to-four-unit loans as a proxy because HMDA carries no first-time-buyer flag. The full-year scenarios apply observed 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasonal shapes to settled January-April 2026 volume; the monthly central path holds the 2023 shape constant and varies the level.
A first-time homebuyer is generally a buyer who has not held an ownership interest in a principal residence during the three years before the purchase. Several programs also extend eligibility to displaced homemakers and single parents who previously owned only with a spouse.
First-time buyers took 60.3% of agency purchase loans in the first half of 2026, or 530,048 of 879,214. Survey estimates near 20% measure all home purchases including cash, which is a different denominator.
The average first-time buyer agency purchase loan in the first half of 2026 was $339,695 at 5.93%, with an average LTV of 91% and DTI of 40.1%.
Polygon Research projects 1.43 million first-time buyer agency purchase loans in 2026, within a band of 1.24 to 1.52 million depending on how the second half develops. At the current average loan amount of $339,695, that is roughly $487 billion in first-time buyer purchase volume, with a range of $421 billion to $515 billion.